Hurricane Milton now a Cat 1, flash flooding expected across Central Florida

NHC: Milton approaching west-central coast of Florida

This story was updated to add new information.)

Hurricane Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, Florida in Sarasota County as a Category 3 storm Wednesday night, with sustained winds of 120 mph but dropped to a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph by 3 a.m. Thursday, according to the latest National Hurricane Center update.

Life-threatening storm surge still threatens the west coast and rain, extreme winds, and flash flooding warning have been issued for all of central Florida. Between 5 and 9 inches of rain have fallen in the affected areas as of 1:34 a.m and 3 to 6 more inches are possible, the NWS said.

Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph.

On the forecast track, Milton will move across the central part of the Florida peninsula and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday

VERY HEAVY RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA,” the NHC said at 2 a.m. “FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES REMAIN IN EFFECT”

The storm peaked Monday evening as one of the top 5 strongest Atlantic hurricanes on record with sustained winds of 180 mph — after undergoing rapid intensification — and a minimum pressure below 900 millibars.

Why is everyone focused on storm surge with Hurricane Milton?

Of extreme concern to forecasters is storm surge, which the Hurricane Center said could hit 9 to 13 feet along several areas on Florida’s west coast. Storm surge kills more people during hurricanes than wind. Approximately 90% of all deaths in hurricanes worldwide are caused by drowning in either the storm surges or flooding caused by intense rainfall, according to the Florida Climate Center.

“The storm surge anticipated in some communities will be to the level of one- and two-story buildings and can reach that level with tremendous force in a matter of a few minutes,” AccuWeather warned.

“Milton will be a surge event unlike any hurricane in living memory for west-central Florida, with only major hurricane strikes in 1848 and 1921 comparable in scope and height of the coastal flooding,” Truchelut said.

The risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone,” the Hurricane Center said.

Breakdown of the threats expected from Hurricane Milton:

Catastrophic storm surge damage to a broad swath of west-central and Southwest Florida, potentially including Tampa Bay.

“Anyone along or south of the center track will receive coastal flooding from a combination of ill-timed high tide, extreme wave action, and onshore winds piling in the surge,” Truchelut said.

Damaging coastal and inland winds to Central Florida

Major metro areas that can expect the impacts of a hurricane include Orlando, Winter Haven and Daytona Beach, AccuWeather said.

Flooding rains

Current guidance calls for general 5-10” storm rainfall totals in a box between Jacksonville, Cedar Key, Venice, and Melbourne, with embedded regions of 10-15” accumulations most likely along or just north of the I-4 corridor.
AccuWeather predicted a broad area of 8-12 inches of rain over the central and northern parts of the Florida Peninsula, but within this zone, a narrow corridor of 12-18 inches of rain may occur with an AccuWeather Local StormMax rainfall of 30 inches.

Coastal flooding
Tornadoes

Several tornadoes swept across south Florida ahead of Milton, and multiple fatalities were reported at Spanish Lakes Country Club Village in Lakewood Park, a neighborhood in St. Lucie County north of Fort Pierce, according to St. Lucie County Sheriff Keith Pearson. More are likely tonight across parts of central and southern Florida, the Hurricane Center said.

Dangerous surf and rip currents

Swells generated by Milton are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Widespread power outages.

Some of the power outages may last many days to weeks in the hardest-hit areas, AccuWeather said

Milton made landfall near Siesta Key, a barrier island off the coast of Sarasota.

At 3 a.m. Thursday, the center of Hurricane Milton was located inland near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 80.9 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the east tonight.

On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move across the central part of Florida during the next few hours and emerge off the east coast of Florida around sunrise.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida this morning.

After moving into the Atlantic, Milton is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles.

To put it into perspective, the Florida Peninsula ranges in width from 100 to 140 miles wide.

Latest wind speeds reported:

Weatherstem station on South Hutchinson Island: Sustained wind of 63 mph, gust to 73 mph
Daytona Beach International Airport: Sustained wind of 61 mph, gust of 81 mph
NASA weather station at Cape Canaveral: Sustained wind of 61 mph, gust of 77 mph
Melbourne International Airport: Sustained wind of 40 mph, gust of 62 mph

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).

Here are the latest watches and warnings issued for areas threatened by Hurricane Milton:

Hurricane warning:

Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay
Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach

Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane watch:

Lake Okeechobee
Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line

Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.

Tropical storm warning:

Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay
Lake Okeechobee
Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass
Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo
North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina
Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini

Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Tropical storm watch:

None issued for Florida at this time.

Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.